Austin Real Estate Predictions for 2026
Jan. 22. 2026
Well HELLO 2026!
It is no secret that 2025 was not the most stellar housing market for Austin Tx. Reading my blogs of 2026 alone will tell you that! Low consumer confidence, high interest rates, more contracts cancelled in the history of real estate, the affordability gap–it was a very challenging and stressful year as many sellers battled expectations for reality and potentially even being upside down on their home. Few buyers in the market gave them all the leverage they needed.
However, we are three weeks into the new year and there is a bit of a different tune being sung.
First let me cover what happened in December:
In 2024 there were three weeks (Mid December to mid Jan) where each week well under 100 homes went under contract.
However, we are seeing a shift in the market and the week of Christmas alone more than 100 homes went under contract! Say What?!
What I am seeing right now in the market:
More homes listing BEFORE the typical Spring time frame.
More homes going under contract.
In December 2025 compared to 2024 its important to note:
- 2949 homes sold (a 4.3% increase over 2024)
- $1.65B in volume (up 4.7% from 2024)
- Pricing-still a bit stagnant-greater Austin showing $561,931
- 68 average days on market (up from the year prior)
So what to expect in 2026?
Well, I break down what Forbes, Fannie Mae, NAR and the Mortgage Bankers Association are predicting HERE and will say–there is finally a little light at the end of the tunnel.
Are they predicting rates below 6.5%? Not quite.
Are they predicting a huge increase in prices? Actually, No.
But essentially there are predictions around coming out of the low part of our housing lull.
There has always been a great amount of focus (and pressure) on interest rates being lower to move the housing market. From my professional perspective–I think consumer confidence is the number one driver. Consumers have to feel safe. Safe in their jobs. Safe in their finances. Safe in their timing.
And if you ask me how 2026 is going to shake out, here are my predictions (and I could be bias because I always have “new year, new goal” energy and I have about 12 listings in the books to hit the market over the next month, so I am feeling optimistic and rather busy right now.
Ashley’s 2026 Predictions:
- Rates will hover below 6.25% but most likely not dip into the 5% range
- Prices will rebound some from 2025 (always area dependent) but overall the same if not a tad higher
- Still have more sellers than buyers in the market, but less buyers on the sidelines
- Central Austin will remain strong, below 40 days on market averages
- Buyers will still desire closing cost credits to buy down interest rates as well as more updated homes
- Overpriced homes will sit
- Homes priced right will get engagement and eventually, offers
I have learned a few things in my years of real estate and when it comes to buyer/consumer psychology, I believe most people are more motivated by fear of loss than fear of gain.
Buyers fear losing money on a house.
What if I buy and the market keeps dipping?
What if I buy and then rates drop in two months?
What if I lose my job right after I buy a home? The need to feel safe is high, and its biological.
We are wired for survival—which unfortunately means we are wired to think negatively. We are constantly scanning for worst case scenarios and thinking negatively keeps us scanning for survival, for safety.
And while I don’t believe being blindly optimistic is the best strategy or “hopeful everything will work to your favor” I wish more people made moves in their lives for gain vs fear of loss. There are so many wonderful opportunities to be had, but often I see people sit on the sidelines and miss out on opportunities. Most people would rather never purchase a home than buy, lose money and learn a lifetime worth of lessons to gain more in the long run.
Anyway, enough with my psycho-babble…talking to different people on the daily and hearing their struggles and fears–my mission is to always try and truly understand their underlying fear as well as their main goal (and yes every seller’s goal is to get as much as they can for their home, I get that, but there is a lot more to that magical number often). I find there is a balance between data and emotions in residential real estate and blending the two for the ideal scenario for my client is always the goal.